2007 Housing Slump Alters Moving Trends
The housing slump and mortgage crisis combined to reshape population flows in 2007, according to demographic estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau in early 2008. “The hot housing market cooled off, and it’s stopping people from moving,” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution that analyzed the Census estimates.
In particular, the data revealed that:
Nevada’s growth rate fell to 2.9% in 2007 from 3.5% the previous year. Florida’s growth also hit a low of just above 1%, down from its high of 2.3% in 2005. Arizona, No. 2 in growth, slipped to 2.8% from 3.6%.
Washington this year became the 13th largest state, bumping Massachusetts to No. 14.
Midwestern industrial states, including Michigan and Ohio, continue their population decline. Michigan lost 30,000 people in one year, leaving a total population of 10.07 million (8th largest state), and Ohio grew by only 3,404 people for a total population of 11.47 million [7th largest state).
Reflecting a slowdown in the lure of the Washington, D.C. metro area, Virginia gained a net 3,000 people from other states, down from 10,000 in 2006 and a high of 41,000 in 2003. “Maryland had an increase in out-migration,” Frey says. “In-migration into the greater D.C. area seems to be slowing down.”
Louisiana, still grappling with the effects of 2005’s Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, gained almost 50,000 residents between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2007, although the state still has 200,000 fewer residents than it did before the storms. New Orleans’ population is about two-thirds of its pre-storm level.
The housing slump also could affect the political landscape. If population declines continue, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania will each lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives through reapportionment after completion of the 2010 Census.